What Games Teach Us About War

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting”

- Sun Tzu, ‘Art of War’

As the name suggests, Game Theory is the theory that tries to model the games or situations with two or more players. This means understanding how other players will act, how the game will evolve and which strategy works best for us, or sometimes for everyone (McNulty, 2021). Over the years, Game Theory has been used in various situations, from actual games to businesses and even wars. I intend to give you a small glimpse of how such a theory can be used in something as severe and extreme as war.

Before we go deeper into this theory with the context of war, one concept must be cleared out - finite and infinite games. In the simplest terms, Finite Games have a set number of known players, set rules and an agreed objective. Things like baseball, competition for a job position etc., are finite games. On the other hand, Infinite Games have known and unknown players, changeable rules, and the game's only objective is to perpetuate the game itself (Aderant, 2020). Competition between firms in an industry is an infinite game since there are no real winners or losers. Since infinite games have no fundamental objective, there are no champions. The game only ends when a player does not have either resources to continue or the will to play.

Finite vs Infinite Players

With the game theory background, the game is stable when a finite player is set against a finite player or when an infinite player is set against an infinite player. However, things get unstable when a finite player goes against an infinite player - the latter has the upper hand, even if that does not seem likely.

Time and again, history has proven this model correct.

1. Vietnam War: This game involved a finite player (USA) battling an infinite one (North Vietnam). While the USA's only aim was to win against the communists, their opponents fought for their survival and ideologies. Their dominant strategy was 'staying alive'. Their tactics of guerrilla fighting combined with their infinite strategy finally gave them the victory in 1973.

2. Soviets vs Afghan rebels: When the Soviets tried to take over Afghanistan in 1979, the Afghan rebels (the mujahideen) fought back against them; the USA and the Saudis funded them. The USA accidentally came upon the strategy to "either eject the Soviets from Afghanistan or make it as expensive as possible for them to stay in it". This is an infinite strategy wherein the Americans tried to make their opponent drop out of the game by losing resources. Such a strategy strongly contrasted with the Soviets' short-term finite strategy to control Afghanistan. Accordingly, the Soviet forces left the country by 1989.

The Cold War

The Cold War involved two infinite players - the USA and the USSR. When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, the States declared that they won, an impossible event for an infinite game. USSR had only dropped out. As with any infinite game, new players keep emerging over time - USSR has only been replaced with other players. However, while the Soviet Union held the three tensions of the Cold War, these have been divided by the following:

• Nuclear Tension: USSR replaced by North Korea, Pakistan, Iran.

• Ideological Tension: Communist ideology replaced by Islamic Extremism.

• Economic Tension: The communist/Marxist economy is now replaced by the economies of China and Japan.

While these players know who their opponent is, the USA is still unaware that the Cold War has not ended but just changed its packaging.

The Neutrality of War Strategies

With the number of weapons of mass destruction that most powerhouse countries have today, a nuclear war would likely turn the planet into a barren wasteland. This realisation emerged at the end of the Cold War through the scientific model, and eventually national security policy, called Mutually Assured Destruction (Aumann, 2019). Simply put, any possible nuclear attack would be retaliated in the same way. This would create a situation in which neither side could win and therefore lead to an equilibrium.

Now one might ask, "Why do countries spend so much on weapons and military, especially knowing that most of it shall remain unused due to the fear of mass destruction?" Surprisingly (or unsurprisingly?), the answer also lies in Game Theory, through the Prisoners' Dilemma concept (Khan, 2012). Through this concept, a country might benefit from producing these weapons since they can use the money for something more beneficial. However, since the other country's actions cannot be predicted, the worst-case scenario has to be assumed. This can be better understood through the table below:

From the table above, we understand that both countries choose to save money by not building weapons. However, if the other country does not follow the same pattern, it shall have the upper hand and prove a potent threat. Hence, the countries' Dominant Strategy and Nash Equilibrium (Chen, 2021) lie in the 'middle-ground' outcome (Cell 4). The model reveals an ironically beautiful neutrality where the countries can only produce more weapons and sit glaring at each other, never actually using them.

Game Theory has significantly changed how war strategies are made and how neutrality is achieved without firing a single bullet. Unfortunately, the theory itself cannot stop a war. Game Theory designs strategic pillars that help us avoid a conflict or even find the best outcome in one. However, it is our duty as people to find and use these designs to find peace.

REFERENCES:

• McNulty, D. (2021, October 25). The Basics of Game Theory. Investopedia. Retrieved October 28, 2021, from https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/game-theory-basics.asp.

• Anonymous. (2020, May 27). Is your firm playing the finite or infinite game? Aderant. Retrieved October 28, 2021, from https://www.aderant.com/think-tank/is-your-firm-playing-the-finite-or-infinite-game/.

• Aumann, R. J. (2019, February 28). Can Game Theory Avoid Wars? Nobel Perspectives. Retrieved October 28, 2021, from https://www.ubs.com/microsites/nobel-perspectives/en/latest-economic-questions/economics-society/articles/game-theory-avoid-wars.html.

• YouTube. (2012). Prisoner's Dilemma and Nash Equilibrium. YouTube. Retrieved November 21, 2021, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UkXI-zPcDIM.

• Chen, J. (2021, May 19). Nash equilibrium. Investopedia. Retrieved November 21, 2021, from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nash-equilibrium.asp.